NFL POWER RATINGS

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Introduction: There are many excellent Power Rating systems in use today. Instead of trying to re-invent the wheel, I have included two proven systems. Depending on how you handicap the NFL, choose which one you would like to add to your arsenal of handicapping tools.

Please Note: As with all statistical formulas, you need significant data to produce significant results. When you zoom in on a section of the season, make sure a team has played at least 3 games in the specific category you are analyzing.

There are two columns. The standard column (Std) shows a teams power rating without factoring in the strength of its opponents. The adjustment column(Adj) includes the strength of the opposition.

The NFL Power Ratings:

The Points Formula: The Points Formula is a formula developed by Mike Lee, a Las Vegas handicapping expert. The formula uses a teams points for/points against to calculate the power rating. It gives an excellent picture of how a team is performing, since usually a teams strength can be measured by how much they overpower an opponent.

Assets: This formula tends to favor defense over offense because it uses a ratio method to calculate ratings. For instance, if team A wins 30-20, and team B wins 20-10, team B would have the higher power rating even though both teams won by 10 points. And defense wins games in the NFL.

Liabilities: This formula does not take into account the won-loss record of a team. Here's a small example: Jets win first game of season 41-3, then lose next 3 by a combined score of 42-21. The Giants lose their first game 10-9, then win their next three by a combined score of 42-21. The Jets would be 1-3, the Giants would be 3-1, but the Jets would have a higher power rating.

The Games Formula: The Games Formula expands on the Points Formula, and is loosely based on the NY Times Computer Ranking method. The formula takes into account not only the PF/PA ratio, but also a teams won-loss record, with adjustments made for strength of schedule (if two teams have 8-8 records, the team that played the tougher schedule would be adjusted upwards).

Assets: Takes into account both winning margins and won-loss records.

Liabilities: None that I can think of.

The PR Column:

Points Formula: A teams power rating is calculated strictly on its PF-PA ratio with no adjustments made for opponents power rating.

Games Formula: No adjustments made in Points formula, adjustments made for opponents won-loss record.

The Adj Column:

Points Formula:Opponents power rating counts for 25% of rating.

Games Formula:Factors in the adjusted Points Formula.

The Home, Away, Overall Buttons: You can easily see how a team is doing at home and on the road using any of the above formulas. Once again, make sure a team has played at least 3 games in the chosen category.